Retail enters the era of "control economy", with growth concentrated in digital channels.

The global retail industry is undergoing a profound paradigm shift. According to the latest report released by Euromonitor International, global retail real growth in 2025 was only 2%, but e-commerce contributed approximately 80% of the incremental growth, indicating that growth is highly concentrated on digital platforms rather than the entire retail ecosystem.

The report suggests that retail competition is shifting from expansion to "control"—control over pricing, product discoverability, margins, and consumer decisions. Euromonitor states: "2026 is not just a phase of omnichannel optimization; the complexity of the broader ecosystem will force a competitive reset." Companies that fail to secure influence in these areas will face long-term decline risks.

At the same time, geopolitical fragmentation and tightening trade rules are reshaping retail operations. The U.S. abolition of de minimis exemptions, similar regulatory changes in the UK, Japan, and the EU, as well as geopolitical tensions such as conflicts in the Middle East, are exacerbating supply chain instability. According to Euromonitor International's 2025 Industry Voice survey, 62% of industry professionals expect global tariff changes to impact their business within 12 months. Specific impacts include war risk surcharges of $1,500 to $4,000 per container, rising fuel costs, and extended shipping times of 10 to 14 days due to ship rerouting. Temu has extended delivery times, and Inditex reported clothing delays due to disruptions in air freight through Gulf hubs.

Consumer behavior is also shifting, with saving money evolving from a short-term inflation response into a structural long-term behavior. A Euromonitor International consumer lifestyle survey conducted in January-February 2026 shows that 47% of global consumers plan to save more in the next 12 months. Consumers are increasingly influenced by ultra-low-price digital platforms, algorithm-driven price transparency, and slower overall growth in discretionary spending. As a result, retailers are expanding tiered product portfolios (e.g., private labels), loyalty-driven value ecosystems, and brand extensions. The report notes: "Retailers must choose whether to compete on price or differentiation; trying to hold both positions simultaneously is no longer sustainable."

Artificial intelligence is emerging as one of the most disruptive forces—not only as an operational tool but also as a new layer that controls product visibility and discovery. Nearly 50% of companies say AI has already impacted their business, and 42% plan to increase AI investment. AI is being deployed in pricing automation, inventory management, supply chain optimization, and customer targeting. But a more significant shift lies in the discovery phase: generative AI systems are increasingly shaping what consumers see and ultimately buy. In 2025, AI-driven e-commerce recommendations grew by 304%, far outpacing traditional traffic channels. Visibility is increasingly mediated by AI systems rather than directly controlled by retailers or marketplaces.

Euromonitor concludes: "The key challenge for retail leaders is no longer just how to grow, but how to maintain discoverability, preference, and profitability within a system they cannot fully control."Euromonitor concluded: "The key challenge for retail leaders is no longer just how to grow, but how to maintain discoverability, preference, and profitability in systems they cannot fully control. Successful retailers will possess a unique set of strategic capabilities outlined in our 'Five-Vector Strategy Reset'."