Has China's 618 shopping festival fallen out of favor?

Event Overview

Recently, CNBC released a video titled "Is China's 618 Shopping Festival Losing Its Appeal?", interviewing Jacob Cooke, CEO of e-commerce consulting firm WPIC. Cooke predicts that the sales of China's 618 Shopping Festival in 2026 will grow by approximately 11% year-over-year, a growth rate significantly lower than the high-growth periods of the past few years. He points out that the growth drivers mainly come from the overall increase in e-commerce sales and the extension of the shopping period, rather than a return of impulsive consumer spending.

Market Background

The 618 Shopping Festival originated from JD.com's anniversary celebration and has now become one of China's two major e-commerce promotional events, alongside Double 11. Over the past decade, 618 sales have repeatedly hit new highs, but the growth rate has notably slowed in recent years. During the 2024 618 period, total online sales grew by about 13% year-over-year, while the growth rate further declined in 2025. The projected 11% increase in 2026 indicates that the shopping festival is transitioning from explosive growth to a mature phase.

Meanwhile, the overall penetration rate of China's e-commerce market has approached saturation, and the user growth dividend has peaked. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of national online retail sales in 2025 had already dropped to single digits. Platforms and brands are forced to shift to competition for existing customers, using differentiated strategies to attract consumers.

Impact on Platforms and Brands

Platform Strategy Adjustments

• Mainstream platforms such as JD.com, Taobao Tmall, and Pinduoduo adopted the following measures during the 2026 618 period:
• Extended promotion period: ### Extended from the previous 18 days to nearly 30 days, dispersing consumption peaks and reducing logistics pressure.
• Strengthened low-price strategy: During 618, the scale of the "hundred billion subsidies" was increased, with platforms directly subsidizing low-priced goods to address consumer price sensitivity.
• Simplified game rules: Reduced complicated calculations for discounts, introducing straightforward promotions like direct price reductions and fixed prices to enhance the shopping experience.

Brand and Seller Responses

On the brand side, both international giants and domestic brands actively participated but focused more on profit protection. Some DTC brands chose not to participate in steep discounts, instead attracting repeat purchases through membership benefits or free gifts. Small and medium-sized sellers faced challenges of rising advertising costs and shrinking profits; during the 2026 618 period, platform advertising spending increased by about 15% year-over-year.

Consumer Benefits

Consumers benefited from a longer promotion period, allowing more time for price comparison, reducing impulse buying, and increasing rational decision-making. However, the low-price strategy also led some consumers to question original prices, testing brand loyalty.

Consumer Trend Analysis1. Rational Consumption Returns: Consumers no longer stockpile blindly for discounts but buy on demand. According to a WPIC survey, during the 618 shopping festival in 2026, over 60% of consumers made shopping lists in advance, an increase of 20 percentage points compared to 2020. 2. Mobile-First Dominance: Mobile shopping accounts for over 85% of total transactions, with livestream e-commerce becoming a key channel. Livestream platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou saw significantly faster GMV growth during the 618 period than traditional e-commerce. 3. Cross-Border Consumption Cools: Due to fluctuations in international logistics costs and uncertainty in tariff policies, growth in cross-border overseas shopping orders during 618 slowed to below 5%.

Regional Market Impact

Mainland China

The weakness of 618 reflects the bumpy path of domestic demand recovery. Although e-commerce growth has slowed, offline retail experienced enhanced synergy during the promotional season, with some shopping malls offering unified online and offline pricing to attract consumers back to physical stores.

Other Asian Markets

E-commerce promotional festivals in Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia (e.g., Shopee’s 9.9) face similar challenges. Consumers are increasingly fatigued by promotions, and platforms are beginning to explore membership subscription models as an alternative to short-term mega sales.

Europe and the United States

In Europe and the US, e-commerce still centers around Black Friday and Cyber Monday as the main promotional events, but attempts to mimic 618’s “mid-year sale” have emerged. In 2025, Amazon introduced its first “Prime Day Early Access” campaign, extending the promotion to a full week. However, consumers in Europe and the US are less sensitive to promotions than those in Asia, and long-term repurchase rates rely more on brand loyalty.

Future Trends

1. Normalization of Promotions: The marginal effect of major promotional events is diminishing. Platforms will shift toward a combination of everyday low prices plus membership benefits. JD.com has launched a “Everyday Low Price” channel, while Alibaba has strengthened its 88VIP membership system. 2. AI-Driven Personalized Offers: Leveraging AI to analyze consumer behavior and generate real-time discount coupons, reducing reliance on uniform promotions. 3. Localization of Cross-Border Brands: International brands must adapt to Chinese consumers’ pursuit of “genuine discounts,” avoid the tactic of inflating original prices before discounting, and strengthen livestream content operations. 4. Community Group Buying and Instant Retail: Instant retail platforms like Meituan Flash Sales and Dingdong Maicai launched “delivery within the hour” promotions during 618, capturing some market share from traditional e-commerce.

Overall, the cooling of 618 marks a shift in China’s e-commerce from scale-driven to quality-driven growth. For global e-commerce practitioners, this signals that consumer behavior is irreversibly evolving toward rationality. Platforms and brands must redesign promotional mechanisms to stimulate demand in a sustainable manner.